last August has brought a surprise to France ... Certainly the crisis is not over, but a form of severe depression appears in the immediate avoided. And then there were these surprises :
- Production is a little repartee with the example of automobile production doped, it is true, by the scrapping,
- consumption Household accelerated
- but it is especially the improvement in external accounts, which explains the exit of the recession: you can thank, As such, the recovery plans of American and Chinese.
Many risks, however, can cause a relapse of the business ...
The job
Unsurprisingly, it will decline further in the coming months.
end of June, there were 400,000 jobs lost in France.
Unheard since 1970 with the same instruments measurement!
failures and social plans will Are Continuing as they occur always lags behind the economy. Partial unemployment will have only a temporary effect.
An improved situation will not prevent 200,000 more unemployed by the end of the year !
8 for adults without a job in France! With more , credits that can not be refunded.
Besides the feeling of insecurity that drives those working to save rather than invest, for fear of tomorrow. This feeling
insecurity is also the patron of effect with stagnant wages due to the "reserve army " of unemployed people who want to work.
All this, on completion of the movement to lower prices that protected the consumer as stated above.
Banks
In French banks credit is not gone and worse, the household is far from finished in balance sheets of those banks ...
the first half, was yet made public windfall for those banks ... While bankruptcies are increasing and unemployment is soaring, banks who refinance with the ECB (European Central Bank) rate of 1% practice, however, 20% rate on revolving loans through their branches! ! The complicity of politicians allow them not to change the habits of always ... That said, new rules applied to the banking sector by politicians or their emissaries would they not also designed, by close of banking?
The only way to elevate the debate on these topics would be tax-efficient means of "understanding " to society as a whole is to be secured in these difficult times. Solidarity only preserves democracy (democracy entrenched in the immediate future) and can stop the drift to higher incomes for some. Because banks have taken the speculation using considerable liquidity available to them . This, even though those same banks are still hiding in the United States over their bad assets ...
Moreover, according to the Stability Pact, the deficits of member states should be limited 3% of GDP. The France will very probably reach 5.3% of GDP in 2009.
Budget
action necessary to end recovery plans and thus restore fiscal balances, even if only to stop digging the advantage
deficits and debt public may however break a nascent recovery.
States who have learned the lessons of the 1930s are indeed, as has often been said, occurred in power. We can discuss at this point of reflection, recovery plans and discretionary measures many and varied - the scrapping a car is -.
From 66% of GDP in public debt and fiscal in France in 2007, and should reach 86% of GDP in 2009 .
This debt is the result of state spending : major expenditure items relate primarily social welfare, unemployment, followed by health, education, homeland security, defense, environment ... Public debt and widening budget because these expenses are greater than revenues (taxes and payroll taxes) for 25 years.
According to European Stability Pact, a state must limit public debt to 60% GDP ...
Moreover, according to the Stability Pact, the deficits of member states should be limited 3% of GDP. The France will very probably reach 5.3% of GDP in 2009.
A State may submit a budget deficit (also called public debt and budget, as seen in the preceding paragraph) that is to say spend more than it has in cash, provided that such sum not exceed the equivalent of 3% of the wealth produced.
In Europe, France is not the country the biggest spender.
However, it is one of the most indebted countries because economic growth is lower than in other countries. Therefore, revenues are lower in France than in other European countries.
In conclusion, we can write that it is essential to reduce public debt, but focusing on premature action that would break down the recovery. Let us remember that Alain Juppe was broken and resumed in 1995.
France is still the subject since April of procedure for "excessive deficit . An excessive deficit, which, according to the European Commission, is not solely due to the crisis but because nothing had been done before the actual crisis when growth was still there. The announcement of a "big government bond " by the French government involving a stimulus package even further in 2010 contradicts the previous announcements of the same government that announced a different fiscal policy and very restrictive.
There is a lack of transparency because the debate was not resolved!
must, however, and in all honesty say that the debate is anything but simple because that Europe and France this globalized themselves are unreadable in the context of a sound economic and financial analysis based, among other things, on the transparency of all, including those of banks. .. Our
" French model" had, as we said in an earlier message, limited the damage, compared to other countries like Italy, Spain, Germany and the countries of east. It can not avoid it ...
Xavier ALGRET
